Indo-Pakistani relations have always been tense since their independence from British rule in 1947. Different kinds of conflicts characterise the relationship between the two countries. One source of conflict between the two is over the Indus River whose waters they share. It flows through India and Pakistan to the Arabian Sea. The disputes were settled in 1960 thanks to the Indus Water Treaty which allocated the water of the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab to Pakistan and the waters of the Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi to India.
Source map: Indus River System
This scenario illustrates how water can be a fundamental player in international geo-politics. Some scholars call this “hydropolitics” (Bobin, 2012). The heart of the problem between transboundary water bodies is that upstream countries can at any moment reduce, stop or pollute the flow of water to the downstream country. Where relations are bitter between upstream (India in our case) and downstream countries (Pakistan) because of their common water resources we can see how treaties regulating these resources are fundamental to avoiding potential conflicts.
India and Pakistan are nuclear powers with strained relations, especially over the disputed land, Kashmir. The headwaters of the Indus River are located in Kashmir and, as explained above, upstream countries have a huge advantage over downstream countries. Fortunately, the Indus Water Treaty has prevented open military conflict, however the treaty is once again threatened by Indian plans to build hydroelectric dams in this area. The Indus River provides water to over 80% of Pakistan’s 54 million acres of irrigated land, and farming activities provide 21% of the country's GDP (The Economist, 2011). Pakistan has genuine reasons for concern - India needs to power its economy and is investing serious amounts of money in hydroelectric dams. At least 30 already exist on the border and some have already been the subject of international disputes: in the early 2000’s India built the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab river after a neutral expert ruled in its favour, a court of arbitration stopped India from constructing a permanent structure for the Kishanganga Dam and the latest case under dispute is the construction of the controversial Nimoo-Bazgo hydropower project on the Indus River (Express Tribune, 2012).
This situation raises many concerns worldwide. Groups of extremists in Pakistan consider the planned construction of dams by India to be a threat to their existence and call for war, even a nuclear one (The Economist, 2012, Daly, 2011), and the US Senate report of February 2011 contains a grim warning about the future of Indian and Pakistani relations over their shared resources, concluding that “dams are a source of significant bilateral tensions” (The Economist, 2012).
The situation is alarming and tension is building up. Ironically, India faces the same problems as a downstream country over the Brahmaputra river with its neighbouring country in the Far East: China. As proven by the success of the Indus Treaty, selfishness is not the answer for a vital resource such as water - cooperation and compromise have been working well in the area. However, as important growing economies such as India and China seek further sources of electrical power, international efforts should immediately give more attention to these hydro-political events in the region and urge transboundary countries to seek agreements within clear frameworks such as the Indus Treaty, otherwise water wars are much more of a possibility than we can really imagine.
References and further reading:
Bobin F., 2012, Chine et Pakistan se disputant l’eau de l’Himalaya. Available at: http://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2012/03/12/chine-inde-et-pakistan-se-disputent-l-eau-de-l-himalaya_1656516_3244.html
Daly J. 2011, Pakistani Editorial Says Nuclear War with India "Inevitable" as Water Dispute Continues. Available at: http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Pakistani-Editorial-Says-Nuclear-War-With-India-Inevitable-As-Water-Dispute-Continues.html
Express Tribune 2012,Nimoo-Bagzo project: Pakistan to take dam dispute to world court. Available at: http://tribune.com.pk/story/315760/nimoo-bazgo-project-pakistan-to-take-dam-dispute-to-world-court/
Lamballe Allain, 2000, L’eau source de conflits en Asie du Sud. Available at: http://www.svabhinava.org/indochina/alainlamballe/EauConflits-frame.php
Sudheer Kumar Shukla; Avanish K Panikkar, 2012, "Indian river systems and pollution". In: Encyclopedia of Earth. Eds. Cutler J. Cleveland (Washington, D.C.: Environmental Information Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment). Available at: http://www.eoearth.org/article/Indian_river_systems_and_pollution?topic=58075
The Economist, 2011, Unquenchable thirst:A growing rivalry between India, Pakistan and China over the region’s great rivers may be threatening South Asia’s peace. Available at: http://www.economist.com/node/21538687