An important recent publication by Palmer et al. 2023 focuses on the complex and highly variable rainfall patterns in Eastern Africa, exploring the drivers and impacts of rainfall variability on the region's ecosystem, economy, and human wellbeing.
The region experiences two main rainfall seasons, the long rains (March-May) and short rains (October-December), which are influenced by global teleconnections such as ENSO and IOD. The IOD is a key driver of short rains, with a positive IOD leading to wetter conditions. Observed changes in rainfall over the past few decades show a drying trend in the long rains and a wetting trend in the short rains.
These changes have significant impacts on agriculture, water security, and human health. Improved early warning systems and climate forecasts are necessary to mitigate these impacts.
Future projections suggest an increase in short rains totals under a warming climate, with an increased risk of torrential rains and flooding. However, uncertainties remain, and further research is needed to improve our understanding of the drivers and impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability. The paper highlights the need for continued investment in climate research and forecasting to support sustainable development in the region.
Source: Palmer, P.I., Wainwright, C.M., Dong, B. et al. Drivers and impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 254–270 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00397-x
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-023-00397-x#citeas